The US is in the middle of the typical peak homebuying season, but all signs suggest that the market remains sluggish.

Housing contract activity slipped sharply in April, even though buyers had more inventory to choose from. Meanwhile, buyers and sellers are locked in something of a standoff: More sellers are listing their properties, but prices haven’t fallen much, and buyers are being picky.

Mortgage rates aren’t helping. They’ve held remarkably stable this year, hovering between 6.8% and 7%. Rate stability can be a good thing because buyers know what to expect when financing. But stability at relatively high levels prices many potential buyers out of the market altogether. Many would-be buyers find they’re able to rent a much larger home than they could afford to buy.

“There was a little bit of a failure to launch feeling” this spring, said Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com. “High home prices persisted. High mortgage rates persisted. Economic uncertainty picked up. All of that we see reflected in the housing data.”

What it will take to bring life back to the market isn’t clear. Lower rates would certainly help, but there’s little reason to think they’ll return to 3% or 4% anytime soon, barring a deep recession. Recessions come with their own housing market tradeoffs, like higher unemployment that reduces demand and elevated mortgage delinquencies.

Yahoo Finance compiled charts that illustrate how quickly the housing market shifted in the last five years, and why it’s at a standstill now.

Home price growth has outpaced wage inflation

For decades, home price appreciation has been outstripping earnings growth. In the last 25 years, home values have more than tripled. The steepest climb came between 2020 and 2022, when pandemic moves and ultra-low mortgage rates spurred a buying frenzy across the country.

Meanwhile, median incomes from 2000 to 2023 did not quite double.

People with 3% mortgages are hanging onto them

In recent years, the housing market has been stalled by what’s known as the rate “lock-in effect.” Anyone lucky enough to have a sub-4% mortgage rate at a time when prevailing mortgage rates are closer to 7% is reluctant to give up that cheap rate in a move. That effect has kept for-sale inventory depressed.

As the days of 3% and 4% mortgages become more distant, the hope is that the lock-in effect will ease. Those who bought after mid-2022 usually have higher rates they’re less wedded to hanging onto. And some people with ultra-low mortgage rates find themselves needing to move anyway, perhaps for a new job or if they’re expecting a baby. But as of the end of 2024, more than half of homeowners are still hanging on to rates below 4%.