With a series of wars, Israel’s military reshapes the Mideast
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With a series of wars, Israel’s military reshapes the Mideast ideast
Israel and its rivals have not resolved their political disputes, which have been further inflamed by the bloodshed. Israel’s international reputation has been badly tarnished by the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza and the huge number of Palestinian civilian deaths in the territory. Israel considered Iran its most dangerous enemy for decades. Yet from Israel”s first strike on June 13, the air force was able to dominate the skies over Iran, while also killing many top leaders.“The Iranian camp is decimated and beaten to smithereens,” said Hussein Ibish with the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, a think tank. The result was an unstable Middle East featuring Israel, backed by the U.S., against Iran and its partners, he said. The Israel-Iran ceasefire after 12 days of intense airstrikes may mark the end, for now, of the region’s major battles that began with the Hamas attack against Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. But the Middle East still faces much unfinished business.
Marc Israel Sellem/AFP via Getty Images
With a series of powerful blows to Iran and its proxies, Israel has reasserted its military dominance in the Middle East and reshaped the region less than two years after it was caught off guard in a surprise attack.
The Israel-Iran ceasefire after 12 days of intense airstrikes may mark the end, for now, of the region’s major battles that began with the Hamas attack against Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. But the Middle East still faces much unfinished business.
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Israel and its rivals have not resolved their political disputes, which in some cases have been further inflamed by the bloodshed. And Israel’s international reputation has been badly tarnished by the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza and the huge number of Palestinian civilian deaths in the territory.
Israel considered Iran its most dangerous enemy for decades. Yet from Israel’s first strike on June 13, the air force was able to dominate the skies over Iran, repeatedly hitting the country’s nuclear sites and military facilities, while also killing many top leaders.
Iran’s supreme leader, the 86-year-old Ayatollah Aly Khamenei, claimed his country came out on top. President Trump countered on Friday, saying, “I’m going to respond to the ayatollah’s statement yesterday that ‘we won the war.’ I said, ‘Look, you’re a man of great faith, a man who’s highly respected in his country. You have to tell the truth — you got beat to hell.”’
This follows Israel’s conflicts with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, which wiped out their leaderships and devastated the two groups, both allied with Iran. In addition, Syria’s longtime dictator, Bashar al-Assad, fled in December after more than a decade of civil war. While Israel didn’t play a direct role, his ouster removed another regional rival with close ties to Iran.
The collapse of Iran’s proxies
Iran spent decades building this network of proxies, collectively known as the “axis of resistance” and designed to pressure Israel from all sides. The result was an unstable Middle East featuring Israel, backed by the U.S., against Iran and its partners. Both sides believed they could inflict major damage on the other, a proposition that made everyone wary of a major confrontation.
The past two years made clear that Israel, with U.S. help, is the dominant military force.
“The Iranian camp is decimated and beaten to smithereens,” said Hussein Ibish with the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, a think tank.
Middle East conflicts are frequent, though often the fighting is contained and for a limited period. But the severity of the Hamas attack, which killed more than 1,100 Israelis in one day, prompted a massive Israeli response, which Hamas should have expected, Ibish said.
“Hamas tries to claim, ‘We didn’t know that the October attack would be game-changing and bring out Israel with all its force,” said Ibish. “That’s just absolute nonsense. They knew it. They wanted it. And they said they’d keep attacking Israel until they got that result.”
The Hamas leader who orchestrated that attack, Yahya Sinwar, wanted allies to join in as part of a full-scale regional war against Israel. However, in the early months of the fighting, Hamas received only limited support from Hezbollah, which fired rockets into northern Israel, and the Houthis in Yemen, who fired on commercial ships in the Red Sea.
Sinwar, who was killed by Israel in Gaza last October, was completely focused on the Palestinian cause. Yet the attack he launched set off the chain of events that have realigned the region — though not in a way he ever intended.
The changes came rapidly when Israel began an offensive against Hezbollah last fall, beginning with exploding pagers that killed or wounded many group members simultaneously.
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“In very short order, Iran’s entire presence around Israel’s borders collapsed,” said Vali Nasr, an Iran expert who’s a professor at Johns Hopkins University. “Israel found much greater room to maneuver in Lebanon, Syria, Gaza. And then Israel decided this was the time to press this advantage and settle things with Iran as well.”
Majid Saeedi/Getty Images Europe
The limits of military power
However, these military successes only go so far.
Israel has greatly reduced the security threat it faces, but has not solved political differences in the region, especially when it comes to the Palestinians, where a solution seems further away than ever.
The fighting in Gaza drags on, though it’s almost entirely one-sided. Israel continues to carry out regular attacks and Palestinians continue to suffer high casualties, many of them civilians trying to get food aid that remains in chronically short supply. More than 56,000 Palestinians have been killed, most of them women and children, according to Palestinian health officials.
The recent Gaza fighting received little attention amid the Israel-Iran war. But more broadly, the Palestinian call for statehood still generates widespread support in the region and in the West. This ranges from political protests to sanctions to a genocide case filed against Israel at the International Court of Justice in The Hague.
“When the genocide case was first launched, I thought it was plainly hyperbolic, sort of an interesting rhetorical exercise in law, but not really a serious case,” said Hussein Ibish. “Now, obviously, it’s become a very serious case indeed.”
Before the Gaza war began, Israel was making headway in establishing diplomatic and business relations among Arab countries. The U.S. was pushing for formal ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which would be a major breakthrough. But the Saudis say that’s on hold until Israel makes progress toward a political deal with the Palestinians.
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“Relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel was to become the basis for the integration of the region,” said Vali Nasr. But the Gaza war “disrupted this and put the Palestinian issue squarely on the table. Israel cannot move into the region, coexist with the region, build these normal relations, without solving this issue.”
Over the past two years, Israel has had moments of friction with the U.S., including an angry outburst by Trump when he said Israel didn’t observe the start of the ceasefire with Iran on Tuesday.
But the U.S.-Israel alliance was on display with the U.S. airstrikes against Iran’s nuclear program last weekend. And on Wednesday, Trump praised Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as a hero and said a long-running corruption case against him in Israel should be called off.
“Bibi and I just went through HELL together, fighting a very tough and brilliant longtime enemy of Israel, Iran, and Bibi could not have been better, sharper, or stronger in his LOVE for the incredible Holy Land,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
After the Hamas attack, Netanyahu’s days as prime minister seemed numbered. But Netanyahu, and Israel, have made a comeback.
“The Israel that has come out of October 7th and the Gaza war is confident. It wants to settle its security issues around the region once and for all,” said Vali Nasr. “If it’s successful, then we will be dealing with a very different Middle East in which Israeli military power will reign supreme.”
But, he added, the outcome is not entirely clear. If Israel doesn’t succeed, “then the region is going to roll back again into the kind of stalemate it had, except far more dangerous than the one before.”
Redrawing the map: How Iran–Israel war is reshaping the Middle East
The escalation that erupted in June 2025 between Israel and Iran is not an anomaly, but the culmination of years of covert hostilities, diplomatic friction, and strategic miscalculations. The events now unfolding in open warfare are radically reshaping the Middle East’s power dynamics and redrawing the region’s strategic map. For decades, Iran and Israel conducted their confrontation through proxy wars, espionage operations, and cyberattacks. Israel systematically targeted Iranian positions in Syria and covertly sabotaged elements of Tehran’s nuclear and military infrastructure. Iran, through its so-called “Axis of Resistance,” leveraged Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi factions to pressure Israeli and American interests. This dynamic persisted until the tectonic rupture of October 2023, when Hamas’ surprise attack on Israel reignited full-scale war in Gaza and set the stage for broader regional confrontation.“This is not a spontaneous conflict,” said Dr. Haitham al-Hiti, professor of political science at the University of Exeter.
The escalation that erupted in June 2025 between Israel and Iran is not an anomaly, but the culmination of years of covert hostilities, diplomatic friction, and strategic miscalculations. The events now unfolding in open warfare—including cross-border missile strikes, drone swarms, and targeted assassinations—are radically reshaping the Middle East’s power dynamics and redrawing the region’s strategic map.
For decades, Iran and Israel conducted their confrontation through proxy wars, espionage operations, and cyberattacks. Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen became arenas of indirect competition. Israel systematically targeted Iranian positions in Syria and covertly sabotaged elements of Tehran’s nuclear and military infrastructure, while Iran, through its so-called “Axis of Resistance,” leveraged Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi factions to pressure Israeli and American interests.
This dynamic persisted until the tectonic rupture of October 2023. Hamas’ surprise attack on Israel—aided, according to Israeli and Western intelligence assessments, by Iranian logistical and strategic backing—reignited full-scale war in Gaza and set the stage for broader regional confrontation.
Israel’s overwhelming military response in Gaza led to tens of thousands of casualties, prompting Iran-aligned actors to escalate operations from Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq.
By early 2024, Israel and Iran had entered a new phase: one of sustained, direct, though still largely deniable attacks. Israeli airstrikes intensified against Iranian commanders in Syria and Iraq, while suspected Mossad operations targeted nuclear scientists and IRGC personnel deep within Iranian territory. Iran, in turn, increased its support to regional players and expanded its drone and missile programs, preparing for a scenario where deterrence might fail.
That failure came on June 13, 2025, when Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, striking multiple Iranian nuclear and military sites, including Natanz, Fordow, and Tehran. The operation resulted in the deaths of senior IRGC commanders, nuclear experts, and political figures. Iran’s airspace was sealed, and retaliatory planning began immediately.
“This is not a spontaneous conflict,” said Dr. Haitham al-Hiti, professor of political science at the University of Exeter. “It’s part of a broader regional restructuring—starting with Hezbollah assassinations, now moving through Iran’s command structure, and possibly reaching Iraq and Lebanon.”
Iran’s counter-operation, dubbed True Promise 3, marked a turn with Tehran directly fired hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones at Israeli territory. Civilian and military targets were hit in Tel Aviv, Haifa, Bat Yam, and the Gush Dan area. Israeli casualties surpassed two dozen, while Iran reported more than 200 fatalities from the initial strikes.
Beyond the destruction, what sets this confrontation apart is its regional resonance. Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Qatar launched urgent diplomatic initiatives. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan warned that the conflict could “drag the entire region into the fire,” and began intensive phone diplomacy with key Arab and Iranian leaders.
“Israel’s aggression could ignite a devastating regional war,” Erdogan said, noting the potential for refugee flows, economic collapse, and the collapse of security arrangements in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq.
Saudi Arabia, historically cautious in its dealings with Iran, sought to reclaim its role as a balancing force. A diplomatic source told Shafaq News, “Riyadh is seeking to reclaim its place as a regional anchor, stepping into a mediation role once held by Qatar and Oman.”
Yet these efforts have yielded little. The collapse of traditional deterrence and the erosion of international diplomatic credibility have allowed the military logic to dominate. The Muscat channel between Tehran and Washington was suspended. UN efforts were paralyzed by US veto power and a lack of consensus among major powers.
“The UN doesn’t have the freedom to act without US approval,” said Lebanese analyst George Alam. “That makes any international initiative vulnerable to paralysis.”
Meanwhile, Iran has framed its retaliation as part of a broader realignment.
“These focused and retaliatory operations will continue until the Zionist entity is eliminated,” the IRGC declared after confirming the death of Brigadier General Mohammad Kazemi, head of its Intelligence Organization.
Egyptian expert Mounir Adeeb emphasizes that the conflict has exposed the fragility of the global system, “Major powers, led by the United States, were direct enablers of the Israeli strike,” he said. “They turned a blind eye to violations of international law and allowed red lines to be crossed. The result was war.”
Internally, Iran now faces the twin challenges of sustaining a long war and containing potential unrest. Kurdish movements in the northwest and Ahvazi activists in the southwest are reportedly organizing demonstrations amid the crisis. Israeli analysts speculate that continued strikes on Iranian infrastructure may be designed to exacerbate internal fractures.
“If Iran collapses internally or fragments,” warned Dr. al-Hiti, “we could see the emergence of new secessionist waves—Kurdish independence, Ahvazi autonomy, even unrest in Iraq. That’s how geopolitical maps change.”
And while regional states seek to prevent such an outcome, the war has already forced governments to recalibrate. Iraq has condemned the use of its airspace by Israeli forces. Armed factions aligned with Tehran have threatened to target US bases if Washington intervenes. The Houthis have escalated strikes on Israeli interests in the Red Sea. Hezbollah has declared its full support for Iran.
The consequences are not limited to military strategy. Oil prices have surged. International flights have been suspended across several countries. Diplomacy has stalled. Most importantly, a new regional paradigm is taking shape—one defined not by US-led alliances or post-ISIS stability, but by direct state conflict, multipolar competition, and the return of mass-scale confrontation.
As the missiles continue to fall, one thing is increasingly clear: the Middle East is undergoing a strategic reordering. Whether this leads to a new balance of power or deeper fragmentation remains uncertain. What is certain, however, is that the rules have changed—and so has the map.
Written and edited by Shafaq News staff
Israel’s strikes on Iran just the latest step in Netanyahu’s plan to reshape the Middle East
Israel says it hit at least 100 targets, including several nuclear facilities. The heads of Iran’s armed forces, its revolutionary guard and its emergency command were all assassinated. Six top nuclear scientists — some apparently in their homes alongside their families — were also killed. Israel’s leader said now was the time to destroy Iran’s nuclear program before the “tyrants of Tehran” can develop an atomic bomb.”Pandora’s box has been cast wide open with Israel’s sweeping overnight air campaign against Iranian targets,” a think-tank said in a briefing note on Friday. “For Tehran, this is not only a tactical loss, but a profound strategic humiliation,” said the Royal United Services Institute, a defence and security think- tank. “What struck me was apparently how unprepared the Iranians were,” a former cabinet minister for veterans in the first Trump administration told BBC News. “There’s nothing the U.S. has done that has held back — and I think this was their window of opportunity,” a senior researcher said.
With the Islamic Republic weakened by the near defeat over the past year of key proxies such as Hamas and Hezbollah, the final — and arguably most dangerous — elements of Israel’s military strategy were put in play early Friday local time in Iran.
“Pandora’s box has been cast wide open with Israel’s sweeping overnight air campaign against Iranian targets — an escalation that risks reshaping the strategic landscape of the Middle East,” the London-based Royal United Services Institute said in a briefing note.
“For Tehran, this is not only a tactical loss, but a profound strategic humiliation,” said the defence and security think-tank.
Smoke rises following the Israeli strikes, in Kermanshah, Iran, in this screen grab obtained from a social media video released on Friday. (Reuters)
Netanyahu outlined his maximalist goals for the military operation in a video statement.
“‘Operation Rising Lion’ is a targeted operation to roll back the Iranian threat to Israel’s survival,” he said.
Raising the spectre of what he termed a potential future “nuclear holocaust,” Israel’s leader said now was the time to destroy Iran’s nuclear program before the “tyrants of Tehran” can develop an atomic bomb.
“In recent months, Iran has taken steps it has never taken before to weaponize this enriched uranium,” Netanyahu said as justification for the extraordinary and unprecedented attacks on nuclear facilities, military installations and the assassination of key military and scientific leaders.
Nuclear progress?
Iran’s actual progress toward making an atomic bomb remains murky.
Does the country have such a weapon at the moment? In a report released just a day earlier by the International Atomic Energy Agency the conclusion appeared to be, likely not.
Do they have the fuel to make one? Probably. Are they hiding things from inspectors? The nuclear watchdog’s verdict : most definitely.
Israel says it hit at least 100 targets, including several nuclear facilities. The heads of Iran’s armed forces, its revolutionary guard and its emergency command were all assassinated, as were six top nuclear scientists — some apparently in their homes alongside their families.
Unverified images posted on social media pinpoint missile strikes, with holes punched in the side of concrete buildings where those inside were presumably killed, likely as they slept.
WATCH | Fires burn in Tehran building after Israel launches strikes: Fires burn in Tehran building after Israel launches strikes Duration 0:23 Footage released on social media, which Reuters verified by comparing the scene to satellite and corroborating images, shows emergency vehicles at the scene of a burning building in Tehran on Friday. Reuters was not able to confirm when the footage was filmed.
Other reports suggest many of the military leaders were killed together by an Israeli missile taking out an underground command bunker.
Just hours before the attacks, Iran had boasted its forces were at the “highest level” of readiness and there would be payback if Israel attacked — but by afternoon no such retaliation had materialized.
Israel’s military reported a token force of 100 Iranian drones had been intercepted outside its borders as they flew over Syrian and Jordanian territory, but Iran’s Fars News Agency says no drones were launched.
Caught by surprise
A former cabinet minister for veterans in the first Trump administration noted that the demise of Hezbollah in Lebanon — thanks to Israeli decapitation strikes last summer — combined with December’s removal of the Assad regime in Syria to clear a path for Israel’s military to operate more freely against Iran.
“What struck me was apparently how unprepared the Iranians were,” Robert Wilkie told BBC News.
Israeli security sources reportedly briefed local media that Israel had teams of special operatives on the ground in Iran who launched pre-emptive drone strikes on Iranian ballistic missile launchers to thwart an Iranian response.
Rescuers work at the scene of a damaged building in the aftermath of Israeli strikes on Tehran on Friday. (Majid Asgaripour/West Asia News Agency via Reuters)
Wilkie says the other important factor was U.S. President Donald Trump.
“There’s nothing Trump has done that has held the Israelis back — and I think this was their [Israel’s] window of opportunity.”
In a social media statement following the attacks, the U.S. president offered Iran’s leadership what he called “a second chance” to cut a deal on its nuclear program.
The U.S. has been pushing Iran to end its enrichment activities, the precursor to creating nuclear weapons — something Tehran has refused to do. Talks, which have happened since mid-April, appeared to hit a recent impasse, although another round of discussions was set for Sunday in Oman.
Danny Citrinowicz, a senior researcher on Iran with Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, told CBC News he doesn’t believe Tehran’s leadership is in a position to back down.
“Because it’s capitulation — it’s surrendering to the West,” he said. “What will happen is probably the contrary, more escalation rather than a deal right now.”
Iran’s foreign minister termed Israel’s attacks a “declaration of war” and Muslim countries accused Israel of “blatant aggression.”
Qatar’s prime minister said Israel had destroyed any prospect for peace and had put global security in imminent danger.
The Washington-based Cato Institute, a libertarian think-tank, offered one of the more scathing assessments, blasting the Netanyahu government for exposing U.S. military installations and citizens in the Middle East to extreme risk.
“Netanyahu has started a war with Iran that has no justification,” the group said in a release.
Iran was not on the precipice of acquiring nuclear weapons, the group said, but rather Tehran was attempting to maximize its leverage in negotiations.
WATCH | CBC’s Chris Brown breaks down latest developments as Iran warns of ‘severe punishment’ after Israeli strikes: Iran warns of ‘severe punishment’ after Israeli strikes, but allies’ response muted so far Duration 5:22 In its first response to Israel’s targeting of nuclear sites and scientists, Iran fired more than 100 drones at Israel, none of which have reached their targets. The CBC’s Chris Brown says that while Hezbollah has condemned Israel’s strikes, there hasn’t been much reaction from Iran’s allies in the region.
Proxy wars
Since Oct. 7, 2023, when Hamas militants attacked southern Israel and killed more than 1,200 people, Israel has been waging immensely destructive battles with the Iranian proxies that surrounded its borders.
While Israel’s military and security services scored surprising successes at neutering Hezbollah in Lebanon, the war in Gaza and the staggering cost Israel has inflicted on the civilian population has led to international condemnation and political isolation.
More than 55,000 Palestinians have died in the bombardment and many Western countries, including Canada, have censured Israel for cutting off humanitarian aid and food — deliberately keeping hundreds of thousands of Palestinians in near starvation conditions.
Retaliation cost
Despite the apparent success of the Israeli strikes Friday, analysts noted Iran’s military resources remain vast, and its capacity to inflict damage is high.
“The Iranian response might be delayed or split into multiple phases, but its main weapon will be ballistic missiles,” said the Royal United Services Institute in its statement. The think-tank also noted Iran could mobilize terror attacks to strike soft targets inside and outside of Israel.
Israel’s foreign ministry announced Friday that it was shutting down many of its foreign embassies in response to the presumed threat.
Earlier this week, the website Axios reported Iran had scaled up the manufacture of long-range missiles to around 50 a week, adding to an already immense arsenal of ballistic missiles.
Last November, Iran fired about 180 long-range missiles at Israel, mostly at military targets, in response to Israel’s killing of senior Hamas and Hezbollah leaders.
While most of those projectiles were shot down, some did cause damage at Israeli military facilities and in a neighbourhood on the outskirts of Tel Aviv.
Citrinowicz, the Israeli researcher, says Iran’s leadership may be pondering the cost of retaliation. While Israel’s attacks hit some nuclear locations, others remain intact and functional — for now.
“The Iranians have a huge dilemma in front of them,” he said. “They want to attack Israel to rebuild the deterrence equation with Israel — but on the other hand, if they do so, they will be exposed to [more] Israeli attacks.”
Hamas suggests changes in response to Gaza ceasefire proposal
Hamas says it will release 10 living hostages and 18 bodies in return for Israel’s release of Palestinian prisoners. The updated proposal includes a demand for an end to the war, which had previously been a red line for Israel. It also envisions the release of the Israelis held captive in Gaza being spread out more throughout the 60-day truce, rather than in two batches on the first and seventh day as the US offer suggested. The Israeli military confirmed that Mohammed Sinwar, the Gaza chief, was the target of an Israeli strike on a hospital in southern Gaza earlier this month. He was the mastermind of the October 2023 attack on Israel, which Hamas has not confirmed, but it is believed he was killed in the attack on the hospital. The US proposal was presented by Donald Witkoff, the Middle East envoy for the US President Barack Obama, on Friday. He said: “The time has come for a deal. For the sake of our children’s future, we need to make a deal”
The Palestinian group said in a statement that under the deal it would release 10 living hostages and 18 bodies in return for Israel’s release of Palestinian prisoners – a change to the US’s latest proposal that will make it more difficult for Israel to resume fighting if talks on a permanent ceasefire are not completed by the end of the truce.
The updated proposal includes a demand for an end to the war, which had previously been a red line for Israel, and envisions the release of the Israelis held captive in Gaza being spread out more throughout the 60-day truce, rather than in two batches on the first and seventh day as the US offer suggested.
Witkoff responded on Saturday evening by saying the Hamas response was “totally unacceptable and only takes us backward”.
“Hamas should accept the framework proposal we put forward as the basis for proximity talks, which we can begin immediately this coming week,” he said. “That is the only way we can close a 60-day ceasefire deal in the coming days in which half of the living hostages and half of those who are deceased will come home to their families and in which we can have at the proximity talks substantive negotiations in good faith to try to reach a permanent ceasefire.”
The Israeli prime minister’s office said: “While Israel has agreed to the updated Witkoff outline for the release of our hostages, Hamas continues to adhere to its refusal … Israel will continue its action for the return of our hostages and the defeat of Hamas.”
A senior Hamas official responded that the group “did not reject” the hostage release proposal, and that Witkoff’s response to their answer was “unfair” and showed “complete bias” in favour of Israel.
Several rallies were held on Saturday evening across Israel demanding a ceasefire and the release of the hostages.
Speaking at the Hostage Square in Tel Aviv, Sharon Aloni Cunio, a freed hostage whose husband, David Cunio, remains in captivity, said: “Now is the time to make a deal. Return the fathers to our children. Don’t make them orphans.”
A statement from the Hostages and Missing Families Forum said: “We call upon the prime minister from here. The time has come for a deal. For the sake of our children’s future. One comprehensive deal to bring them all home. Right now.”
Earlier on Saturday, the Israeli military confirmed that it killed Mohammed Sinwar, Hamas’s Gaza chief, on 13 May. Sinwar was the target of an Israeli strike on a hospital in southern Gaza earlier this month. Netanyahu said on Wednesday that he had been killed.
He was the younger brother of Yahya Sinwar, the Palestinian militant group’s deceased leader and mastermind of the October 2023 attack on Israel. Hamas has not confirmed his death.
The Hamas response to the US proposal appears close to a previously reported version of the deal, which specified that the group would release 10 hostages, as well as a number of hostages’ remains, during the ceasefire in exchange for 1,100 Palestinian prisoners.
The Hamas statement said: “This proposal aims to achieve a permanent ceasefire, a comprehensive withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, and ensure the flow of aid to our people and our families in the Gaza Strip.”
It said its response came “after conducting a round of national consultations”.
“There are some notes and amendments to some points, especially on the US guarantees, the timing of hostage release, the delivery of aid and the withdrawal of Israeli forces,” a senior official with the group told the Associated Press.
The US ceasefire proposal reportedly involves a 60-day pause in fighting and a redoubling of efforts towards long-term peace, as well as guarantees from Israel that it will not resume its offensive after Hamas releases hostages, which the country did in March.
Israeli negotiators accepted the deal, but Hamas’s initial reaction to the proposal was lukewarm. On Friday, the militant group said it was holding consultations with other factions operating under its rule in Gaza including Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
Hamas’s response came after two days in which the militant group had indicated that the US proposal was more biased in favour of Israel than previous proposals.
A leading Hamas official, Basem Naim, said on Thursday that the US proposal “does not respond to any of our people’s demands”, including lifting the humanitarian blockade on the Gaza Strip that has led to famine-like conditions among the population of 2 million.
The group’s reaction provoked the ire of their Israeli counterparts. Israel’s defence minister, Israel Katz, threatened the group on Friday with “annihilation” if it did not accept. “The Hamas murderers will now be forced to choose: accept the terms of the ‘Witkoff deal’ for the release of the hostages – or be annihilated,” said Katz.
Israel has not yet officially responded to Hamas’s response, but an official told Israeli reporters on condition of anonymity that Jerusalem was treating Hamas’s changes as an “effective rejection”.
Deep differences between Hamas and Israel have stymied previous attempts to restore a ceasefire that broke down in March after only two months.
Israel has insisted that Hamas disarm completely and be dismantled as a military and governing force, and that all 58 hostages still held in Gaza be returned before it will agree to end the war.
The Israeli government fears that a lasting ceasefire and withdrawal would leave Hamas with significant influence in Gaza, even if it surrenders formal power. With time, the Israelis worry Hamas might be able to rebuild its military and launch more 7 October-style attacks.
On the other hand, Hamas fears that Israel could break the ceasefire – as it did last March – and resume the war, which the Israeli government would be permitted to do after 60 days under the terms of the deal.
A previous ceasefire collapsed in mid-March after Israel refused to move to a planned second phase that could have led to a permanent end to the war, and instead restarted its offensive in the Gaza Strip. Negotiators have met in the months since in an attempt to reach a ceasefire, with little progress to show for it.
More than 54,000 people have been killed in Gaza since Israel launched its war on the besieged Palestinian territory on 7 October 2023. The Israeli offensive was in retaliation for a Hamas attack on the same day, which saw the group kill about 1,200 people and take 250 hostages. About 20 hostages are believed to still be alive and their return is a key demand of ceasefire negotiations.
As negotiations over a ceasefire continued, Israel’s offensive in Gaza has ramped up. At least 60 people have been killed by Israeli strikes in Gaza over the last 24 hours, health officials said, while 72 people were killed on Thursday.
Israel stopped allowing almost all humanitarian aid into Gaza when it resumed hostilities in the Palestinian territory. The nearly three-month Israeli blockade on Gaza has pushed the population of more than 2 million to the brink of famine. While pressure has slightly eased in recent days as Israel allowed some aid to enter, aid organisations say far from enough food is getting in.
“After nearly 80 days of a total blockade, communities are starving – and they are no longer willing to watch food pass them by,” the World Food Programme said on Saturday. The UN aid agency had been allowed to bring 77 trucks loaded with flour into Gaza overnight, but the trucks were stopped en route by crowds of hungry people.
Hamas accepts Witkoff truce outline with amendments aimed at ending war
Hamas agrees to outline of ceasefire deal drafted by US envoy Steve Witkoff. Includes a 60-day ceasefire, with US President Donald Trump proposed as guarantor of Israel’s compliance. 10 living Israeli captives and the remains of 18 others to be released in exchange for a number of Palestinian prisoners to be agreed upon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly demanded that all 10 living captives and 18 bodies be freed in the first week. Palestinian source close to the negotiations criticised Witk Off for pushing an initial draft that lacked clarity and firm guarantees, telling MEE it reflects “ill intention” and warning that it could cause the fragile talks to collapse. He accused the United States of focusing solely on the release of Israeli captives, while ignoring the continued killing of thousands of Palestinians and the spread of famine in Gaza. The source also expressed concern about the lack of transparency regarding the proposed humanitarian aid mechanism, describing the overall framework as offering no viable path to ending the war. The deal had initially been approved by Witkoffs, but following meetings with Israeli minister Ron Dermer and Netanyahu, he withdrew support for the agreement.
The 13-point outline with Hamas’s changes, obtained by MEE through informed Palestinian sources, details terms the group has conditionally accepted.
These include a 60-day ceasefire, with US President Donald Trump proposed as guarantor of Israel’s compliance.
As part of the agreement, Hamas has agreed to release 10 living Israeli captives and the remains of 18 others, in exchange for a number of Palestinian prisoners to be agreed upon.
However, the group proposed that the releases be carried out in phases: four living captives would be freed on day one, two on day 30, and the final four on day 60. The remains of Israeli captives would also be returned in stages – six on day 10, another six on day 30, and the final six on day 50.
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Hamas has also called for Israeli forces to withdraw to the positions they held prior to 2 March 2025.
A Palestinian source close to the negotiations criticised Witkoff for pushing an initial draft that lacked clarity and firm guarantees, telling MEE it reflects “ill intention” and warning that it could cause the fragile talks to collapse.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, the source said: “Witkoff’s insistence on releasing all the captives in the first week shows ill intention. Based on previous experience, the Israelis will simply return to full-scale war and sabotage the rest of the agreement.”
‘Hamas feels Witkoff betrayed them twice’ – Palestinian source
He accused the United States of focusing solely on the release of Israeli captives, while ignoring the continued killing of thousands of Palestinians and the spread of famine in Gaza.
“Hamas feels Witkoff betrayed them twice,” the source said.
“First, when Israel violated the US-guaranteed deal on 2 March by imposing an embargo on aid and then resuming full-scale war on 18 March – with the full support and cover of Witkoff and the US administration.
“And second, when Hamas released an American-Israeli soldier, Edan Alexander, in good faith, expecting humanitarian relief and a shift in the negotiating approach – which clearly did not happen.”
Ambiguous US wording
During the ceasefire talks, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly demanded that all 10 living captives and the 18 bodies be released in the first week – a condition Palestinian negotiators rejected over concerns Israel would resume its military campaign immediately afterward.
While Hamas is demanding an Israeli military withdrawal to positions held before 2 March – short of a full withdrawal from the Gaza Strip – the Palestinian source said Witkoff has failed to clarify exactly where Israeli forces would redeploy in his draft.
“What guarantees do the Palestinians have for an end to the war? Witkoff and the Israelis are not demonstrating any intention …to bring the conflict to a close’ – Palestinian source
“Withdrawal to where? Witkoff has been vague about this as well,” the source told MEE.
The source also expressed concern about the lack of transparency regarding the proposed humanitarian aid mechanism, describing the overall framework as offering no viable path to ending the war.
“What guarantees do the Palestinians have for an end to the war? Witkoff and the Israelis are not demonstrating any intention – or offering a path – to bring the conflict to a close.”
According to the source, earlier in the negotiations, Palestinian-American mediator Bishara Bahbah, who is working for the Trump administration, had reached a preliminary understanding with Hamas. The deal had initially been approved by Witkoff.
However, following meetings with Israeli minister Ron Dermer and Netanyahu, Witkoff reportedly reversed his position and withdrew support for the agreement.
US-Israel coordination
According to the Axios news outlet, Witkoff’s ceasefire proposal was “fully coordinated with Israel and was a result of his meeting with Netanyahu’s confidant Ron Dermer” earlier this week.
Axios also reported that Hamas pushed for language stipulating that if a permanent ceasefire deal is not reached within 60 days, the temporary truce would automatically be extended indefinitely.
Earlier this week, Drop Site News reported that Witkoff’s latest proposal was drafted in coordination with Netanyahu and explicitly avoids guaranteeing an end to Israel’s war on Gaza.
Palestinian negotiators have largely agreed to ceasefire terms set out in a deal signed on 17 January, which was violated by Israel on 18 March when it resumed its military campaign.
In the revised document submitted by Hamas, negotiations for a permanent ceasefire would begin immediately once the temporary truce takes effect.
A key clause put forward by Hamas calls for an “independent committee of technocrats” to administer Gaza’s affairs following a permanent ceasefire – a provision that would see Hamas relinquish governing authority in the Strip.
Israeli army tanks take position at the border between Israel and the Gaza Strip on 29 May 2025 (AFP)
However, reports suggest that Witkoff and Netanyahu have sought to remove provisions that would see Hamas hand over administrative control in Gaza, raising concerns the war could resume after the 60-day period.
On Saturday, Witkoff dismissed Hamas’s amendments as “totally unacceptable and only takes us backward.” He insisted the group accept the existing framework for proximity talks scheduled to begin next week.
Earlier the same day, Hamas said it welcomed Witkoff’s proposal but emphasised the need for key modifications. A Hamas official told Al Jazeera the group had already agreed to an earlier version of the proposal a week earlier, only for Witkoff to return with an altered version that, according to Hamas, omitted crucial elements.
“We cannot accept such a proposal as a baseline for negotiations,” said senior Hamas official Basem Naim, citing the absence of guarantees for a 60-day ceasefire, humanitarian aid, and a full Israeli withdrawal.
Humanitarian aid
In its formal response, Hamas also called for urgent humanitarian and reconstruction measures. These include immediate access to aid, coordinated through the United Nations and organisations such as the Red Crescent, in line with the agreement signed on 19 January 2025, when the first ceasefire deal was reached.
During the negotiation phase, final plans would be developed to rebuild homes, public facilities, and critical infrastructure, alongside assistance for those affected by the war.
Displaced Palestinians ferry bags of food aid after storming a World Food Programme warehouse in Deir el-Balah in the central Gaza Strip on 28 May 2025 (AFP)
The group demanded the full restoration of “electricity, water, sanitation, communications, and roads,” as well as the reopening of hospitals, health centres, schools, and bakeries. Hamas also urged for unrestricted movement through the Rafah crossing with Egypt and the resumption of trade and commercial activity.
Its proposal for a permanent ceasefire includes a “five-to-seven-year halt in hostilities”, to be guaranteed by the United States, Egypt, and Qatar.
While negotiations continue, Washington would remain committed to upholding the truce and ensuring the flow of humanitarian aid, with the goal of concluding talks within 60 days.